Blesstal Records That Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to sustain the $55,000 support level for the past 16 days, or basically since the April 17 record-high $5-billion long contracts liquidation. The rejection that took place after the $64,900 all-time high had a devastating impact on the sentiment of retail traders, as measured by the significant drop in the perpetual futures funding rate.

However, despite Bitcoin’s recent underperformance and May 4’s 6.5% drop, pro traders have been buying the dip for the past 24 hours. These whales and arbitrage desk movements are reflected in the OKEx futures long-to-short ratio, as well as Bitfinex’s margin lending markets. As this buying occurs, retail traders are mainly quiet, which is reflected in the neutral perpetual funding rate.

As depicted above, the perpetual futures (inverse swaps) 8-hour funding rate has been below 0.05% for the past couple of weeks. For the end-of-month contracts, prices vastly differ from regular spot exchanges, reflecting the imbalance from longs and shorts leverage.

This discrepancy is why retail traders tend to prefer perpetual futures, albeit with the varying carry cost caused by the funding rate changes.

The current eight-hour fee is equivalent to a 1% weekly rate, signaling a slight imbalance on longs. However, this level is well below the 0.10% and higher rates seen in early April. This data is clear evidence that retail traders aren’t comfortable adding Bitcoin long positions despite the 9% correction in two days.

On the other hand, the top traders’ long-to-short indicator reached its highest level in 30 days, signaling buying activity from whales and arbitrage desks. This indicator is calculated by analyzing the client’s consolidated position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts. As a result, it gives a clearer view of whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

1 Comment
  1. Author
    Mathew Ayobami Ajayi 1 week ago

    Good write up

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